Wall Street advanced slightly after the opening bell, as various pieces of economic news combined to paint a slightly more optimistic picture of the state of the US economy, calming market fears about a double-dip recession.
US home prices rose in June, having recovered from lows seen during the financial crisis, according to data released today. The S&P/Case-Shiller survey showed that prices in 20 US cities rose by 4.2% during the month, beating a forecast of an increase of 3.5% predicted by a Bloomberg survey of economists. The index is a three-month survey, so the data for June is being affected by transactions in April and May that may have benefited from a government tax incentive. If the US economy lurches back into recession, then house prices will suffer accordingly as Americans remain in their current dwellings.
A separate report from the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index showed that manufacturing in the Chicago region expanded in August, albeit at a less rapid pace than before. The index fell to 56.7% from 62.3% in July, in line with economists' forecasts. Readings over 50% indicate business expansion. The Chicago data is the last in a series of regional indicators that provide data for the national Institute of Supply Management survey which is released on Wednesday.
US consumers echoed the sentiments of their Anglophone cousins today, as a survey of consumer confidence for August showed that Americans were more optimistic than forecast about the strength of the US economic recovery. The Conference Board index reported a reading of 53.5 for the eighth month of the year, ahead of expectations of a reading of 51. The reading defies the current gloomy trend evident in recent economic data, as observed by Blackrock's vice chairman, Bob Doll. Mr Doll commented that 'the critical issue for investors remains the question of whether the economy will experience the much-dreaded double dip', adding that 'a lack of overall confidence has been depressing markets, which is not surprising considering that the most visible aspects of economic growth have continued to be disappointing.' The findings of the Conference Board survey will be compared to the Washington Post/ABC survey which is released later in the day, at 10pm (London time).
By 3.30pm (London time), the Dow Jones had moved forward 33.15 points (0.33%) to 10,183.80 and the S&P 500 advanced 2.23 points (0.21%) to 1051.15. The Nasdaq 100 gained 3.36 points (0.19%) to 1775.43.
Energy stocks lost ground in opening trading as oil headed for its first monthly decline since May. Oil for October delivery slumped to $74.20 per barrel, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron both fell 0.6%, to $58.65 and $73.36 respectively. Oil has declined along with US equities as growing pessimism surrounding the global economic recovery has caused investors to shift away from riskier assets such as stocks and commodities and into safer assets such as the US dollar, the yen and government bonds.
Saks leapt 24% to $8.20 after a report in The Daily Mail suggested that the fashion retailer may receive a takeover offer from a private equity firm. Sales at the company have dropped for two years in a row, with the firm's luxury products suffering as consumers slash spending to deal with effects of the recession.
Agricultural company Monsanto cut its forecasts for the 2010 fiscal year, citing the costs of a restructuring plan. Monsanto said that earnings for the year to 31 August would be $2.40 - $2.45 per share, below its original expectation of $2.40 - $2.60 per share. The figure implies a fourth-quarter loss of 4 – 9 cents per share. Monsanto shares wilted 5.19% to $53.
A jump of 49% in fourth-quarter profit was insufficient to lift the stock price of supermarket Winn-Dixie, which fell 13.47% to $6.94. The firm announced earnings of 25 cents per share, smashing a Reuters forecast of earnings of 15 cents per share, but it also reported a 5.2% fall in like-for-like sales. Winn-Dixie added that it would cut 30 underperforming stores and 120 corporate and field support jobs.
The US dollar continued to fall against the yen as the Japanese government dithered over plans to intervene in order to stem the rise of the Japanese currency. By 3.45pm (London time), the US dollar hit a level of ¥84.62. The ongoing flight away from risky assets saw the US currency slump by over 1% against the Swiss franc, reaching a low of 1.0149 francs during trading.
In addition to the Washington Post consumer confidence survey, the Federal Open Market Committee will publish the minutes of its latest meeting at 7pm (London time). The minutes are likely to be unsurprising, as chairman Ben Bernanke and other Federal Reserve officials have already explained the thinking behind the latest policy adjustments.