NYMEX futures are still broadly up for the past week, despite dropping back from Tuesday to Wednesday.
 
The US dollar has remained under pressure for most of this week, as first the speech by Ben Bernanke and then the Fed minutes increased expectations of further quantitative easing. Also, prices for black gold pushed higher on hopes that more Fed intervention would stave off a major crisis in the global economy. Extreme weather also played its part, as hurricane Irene wound its way up the US eastern seaboard and companies shut down oil rigs ahead of the storm. Prices eased slightly as the week continued, helped by the lack of any major damage to oil facilities along the coast, although, fresh storms are forming in the Caribbean, with the Gulf of Mexico area in their sites this time.
 
Oil prices are also, along with other markets, awaiting August’s set of non-farm payrolls figures; 75,000 additions to payrolls are forecast, which is a lower number than that for July. However, markets have begun to rally on bad news of late, on the understanding that bad news indicates an increased likelihood of more quantitative easing. I would therefore be uneasy about saying whether a poorer number on payrolls will prompt a surge in risk aversion and a drop in oil prices. A really bad figure could see the US dollar drop back, pushing up share and commodity prices in anticipation that ‘Helicopter Ben’ will step in with more help for markets.